|
KMID : 1038520150370010017
|
|
Epidemiology and Health
2015 Volume.37 No. 1 p.17 ~ p.0
|
|
|
Modeling and forecasting of the under-five mortality rate in Kermanshah province in Iran: a time series analysis
|
|
Rostami Mehran
Jalilian Abdollah
Hamzeh Behrooz
Laghaei Zahra
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
OBJECTIVES: The target of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) is to reduce the rate of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of the MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration.
METHODS: The under-five mortality data available from the Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis of the monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model selection criteria.
RESULTS: The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, the unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with a periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be consequences of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems.
CONCLUSIONS: The present work is the first attempt at time series modeling of the U5MR in Iran, and reveals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding systems is a major challenge to fully achieving the MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can enhance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards the MGD-4, and predict the impact of future variations on the U5MR.
|
|
|
KEYWORD
|
|
|
Fourth Millennium Development Goal, Infant mortality, Time series, Seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model, Iran
|
|
|
FullTexts / Linksout information
|
|
|
|
|
|
Listed journal information
|
|
   
|